Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS62 KCAE 192348
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
748 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and muggy tonight as the region remains under the influence
of ridging aloft. The high heat and humidity continues Sunday and
Monday, with Heat Advisory conditions possible both days.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the north this
evening and again on Sunday, followed by increased convective
coverage Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures return to normal for
mid-week followed by another wave of heat to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- A few isolated showers are moving out with calm conditions
  expected through Sunday morning.

The rinse and repeat pattern continued today with some isolated
showers-storms this afternoon. Surface high pressure and ridging
aloft are driving some weak subsidence, so despite high PWAT`s
and instability, convection has generally struggled the last few
days. This evening and overnight, clouds will generally clear
out but some boundary layer winds and abundant low level
moisture will prevent ideal cooling. But some patchy stratus is
possible again like we have seen the last few mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid with near Heat Advisory criteria both days,
  especially on Monday.

- A few thunderstorms possible on Sunday, especially in the
  Northern Midlands, with more coverage possible on Monday.

Upper ridging and associated surface high pressure will be
centered over the northern Gulf at the start of the period,
gradually shifting westward through the short term. This pattern
should result in continued above normal temperatures across the
FA, pushing heat indices over the 100 degree mark. Like today,
there should be sufficient mixing to prevent the issuance of a
Heat Advisory on Sunday, therefore no products are being issued
with this forecast package. Will need to monitor trends to
determine if a Heat Advisory will be needed on Monday,
particularly in parts of the CSRA. While the influence of the
ridge weakens on Monday, the main source of uncertainty
regarding heat index values comes from the increase in moisture
and rain chances around the periphery of departing high
pressure. The greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms on
both days will be across the Northern Midlands as a trough
swings through New England and Atlantic Canada and a cold front
sags south towards the forecast area. The front may provide
enough lift to promote the development of a few strong
thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC SWO places the entire CWA in a
Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as
the primary severe hazard.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures and lower heat
  index values expected for the mid-week period.
- Rain chances are highest on Tuesday, before drier air moves
  in from the north for Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday should be cooler and cloudier as the front slowly pushes
south through the FA in response to high pressure building into
New England. Rain chances are unsurprisingly the highest on
Tuesday. Should the boundary fully slip to our south, as
suggested by the 12Z GFS, rain chances will be low for the
remainder of the extended. Having said that, we will need to
watch the remnant boundary and tropical moisture to see if it is
able to surge back to the north and increase our chance of
showers and thunderstorms. With a cooler, drier air mass in
place, temperatures should continue to be near seasonal values
Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps increasing once again towards
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR Conditions Likely the Next 24 Hours.

Not a whole lot to write home about with this forecast.
Subsidence aloft associated with an upper level ridge has kept
things at bay across the area. There were widely scattered
showers earlier, primarily concentrated near AGS/DNL, but those
dissipated rapidly. Expecting mostly clear skies tonight as we
continue in a similar weather regime, with light winds as well.
Winds should pick up again tomorrow out of the west and
northwest, with the possibility of isolated to scattered showers
again developing by midday. Thinking the best chance is at the
Columbia and Orangeburg terminals where ridging will begin to
break down tomorrow. Regardless, chances don`t look super high,
with a PROB30 justified at both sites to cover the possibility.
That can be refined or removed in later forecasts. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Seasonal chances of patchy early
morning fog/stratus through the extended. Rain chances increase
early next week ahead of an approaching surface boundary.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...