Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

751
FXUS62 KCAE 190600
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot conditions in place today with Heat Index values up to 105.
Heat continues Sunday and Monday, with Heat Advisory conditions
possible each day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
in the north for Sunday followed by increased convective
coverage possible Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures return to
normal for midweek followed by another wave of heat to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot temperatures with highs in the upper 90s
- Deep mixing should prevent Heat Advisory Criteria

Ridging aloft continues to slowly retrograde westward into the
region. Warmer temps aloft and subsidence will work to push
highs into the upper 90s for much of the area and generally
hinder convection. We cannot rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm but a capping inversion this afternoon and
slightly lower PWAT values advecting into the area should keep
coverage very limited with higher rain chances in the SC Upstate
and near the NC border where moisture will be deeper.

Although temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today (most
of us seeing highs from 96 to 99), slightly drier air advects
into the area out of the W/WSW today. This will allow dewpoints
to mix out more than the previous day or so. The most aggressive
guidance, namely the GFS and HRRR, push afternoon dewpoints
into the low 60s with very deep mixing. The NAM seems more
reasonable mixing into the upper 60s. Either way this should
prevent the need for a Heat Advisory. The NBM, which has
verified very poorly recently for dewpoints, is again
unrealistic today showing dewpoints higher than all other
available gridded guidance. Lows a few degrees above normal
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid with near Heat Advisory criteria each day.
- Isolated thunderstorms on Sunday with more coverage on Monday.

Mid to upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the northern
Gulf are expected to continue retrograding to the west through the
short term period, allowing flow aloft to shift from westerly to a
bit more northwesterly. However, a slight uptick in moisture can be
expected Sunday as PWATs increase to the 2"+ mark for much of the
area as Gulf moisture filters in around the upper ridge. With the
northwest flow, some good mixing is anticipated once again, limiting
how high dew points could reach. With the lower dew points, temps
might be a bit higher than forecast (currently upper 90s). All that
to say, we`ll likely be close to Heat Advisory criteria (Heat Index
of 108 or greater), but thinking we`ll be just shy at this time. A
surface trough passing to our north could bring a few thunderstorms
to the northern portions of the forecast area, but many are
anticipated to remain dry. The upper ridge amplifies over the
central CONUS, allowing for an upper trough to start digging toward
the area for Monday. Moisture also increases a bit more. As a
result, there is a higher chance for thunderstorm activity with much
of the area seeing scattered activity. The higher moisture with
temps near 100 again also results in higher Heat Index values, which
may put the area over the 108F criteria for an Advisory. We will
continue to watch for the need of a Heat Advisory for both days in
upcoming forecast packages. Even if we don`t issue any Advisories,
be sure to take necessary precautions to reduce risk of heat related
illnesses.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Slightly cooler for midweek with higher chances for rainfall.
- Trend back to above normal temperatures for the end of the week.

The upper trough over the eastern seaboard digs further south for
Tuesday pushing a surface front into the Southeast, likely leading
to a slight reprieve from the heat and humidity for midweek as drier
air gets filtered in from the north. Additionally, Tuesday is
looking like the best chance for rainfall (~50% north to ~80% south)
across the forecast area as the front pushes through. Lingering
thunderstorms continue into Wednesday as the boundary is forecast to
hang around the region. Upper ridging is then anticipated to build
back over the Southeast, leading to another wave of potential hot
conditions and more typical summer time convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR Conditions Likely

There remains a possibility of stratus developing early this
morning but guidance continues to keep conditions VFR. Higher
mid and upper cloud cover over the area should help reduce the
risk of restrictions around sunrise. Scattered cumulus will
develop again this afternoon but ridging should limit showers
and storms overall. Winds increase by late morning out of the
southwest around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 kts for brief
periods in the afternoon diminishing around sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly isolated showers and storms
this weekend. Seasonal chances of patchy early morning
fog/stratus through the extended. Rain chances increase early
next week ahead of an approaching surface boundary.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$